Aave

Aave's governance token, tied to one of the largest decentralised lending protocols, priced against the US dollar.

137.80+7.42%

Price · last 3 months

Live · CoinGecko

Market trend

Bullish

88/100 confidence

Aave is clearly bullish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averagebullish
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bullish
MACD momentumbearish
RSI (14)bullish
Bollinger positionbullish
Market structurebullish

Key levels

139.24+1.05%
144.04+4.53%

Price137.80

120.67-12.43%
101.81-26.12%
98.18-28.75%

74.2%annualised · elevated

Volatility is above its typical level for this market. Expect larger swings than usual in both directions and size positions accordingly.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Jumped 7.53% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (5.52%).
23h ago
Jumped 9.45% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (5.72%).
2d ago
Closed below 120.67
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
3d ago
Dropped 7.58% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (4.80%).
26d ago
Jumped 12.83% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.6× its typical daily range (5.02%).
27d ago
Closed above 139.24
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
27d ago
Jumped 22.47% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 4.5× its typical daily range (5.02%).
29d ago
Medium-term trend turned bullish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed above the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
Aug 20
Jumped 9.59% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (4.11%).
Aug 19
Medium-term trend turned bearish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed below the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
Aug 15
Dropped 6.20% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (4.84%).
Jul 31
Closed below 98.18
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 31
Closed below 98.18
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 29
Closed below 98.18
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 27
Jumped 8.70% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (4.80%).
Jul 26
Jumped 6.95% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (5.07%).
Jul 21
Closed below 98.18
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 15
Closed below 98.18
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 12

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

125.18 / 115.77

bullish

The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.

62.6

bullish

At 63 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

3.6389

bearish

MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.

1.16× average

bullish

Recent activity is running 16% above the period average, and price is rising into it. Participation confirming the move is what separates a real trend from drift.

7.07 (5.13%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 7.07 per bar, or 5.13% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 139.24 on above-average volume
If it fires: 144.04 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 120.67 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 139.24 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 144.04. The broader trend already supports this, so it would be continuation rather than a reversal. Given the market is moving roughly 7.07 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 120.67 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 101.81, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 139.24 would void this idea

If 120.67 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 101.81. This runs against the prevailing trend, so it would most likely need a catalyst rather than developing on its own. With volatility elevated, a break can travel a long way quickly — the first move is often the largest.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Volatility is elevated at roughly 74% annualised, so the usual position size carries more risk than usual right now.
Crypto trades 24/7, so a position can move substantially while you are asleep with no session close to protect you.
Liquidity thins dramatically during weekends and holidays, which exaggerates both directions.
Regulatory headlines remain the single largest source of unhedgeable overnight risk.

Key events to watch

Spot ETF flow data, published daily
Exchange reserve balances and large on-chain transfers
Regulatory announcements and enforcement actions in major jurisdictions

What actually drives Aave: lending-market total value locked, protocol fee revenue, DeFi risk appetite.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Sep 18, 10:45 PM · Live market data from CoinGecko.