Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar

A spread between two commodity-linked currencies.

0.98864+0.59%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Bullish

52/100 confidence

Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar is marginally bullish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averageneutral
EMA 20 vs EMA 50neutral
MACD momentumbullish
RSI (14)bullish
Bollinger positionbullish
Market structureneutral

Key levels

0.99371+0.51%

Price0.98864

0.97560-1.32%

6.4%annualised · normal

Volatility is around its normal level for this market — no particular warning signal from the range itself.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Jumped 0.59% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.30%).
21h ago
Jumped 0.50% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.28%).
5d ago
Dropped 0.43% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.27%).
7d ago
Dropped 0.43% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.25%).
8d ago
Jumped 0.30% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.24%).
9d ago
Jumped 0.42% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.27%).
15d ago
Jumped 0.52% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.26%).
16d ago
Dropped 0.49% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.24%).
19d ago
Jumped 0.31% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.24%).
21d ago
Dropped 0.58% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (0.26%).
28d ago
Jumped 0.62% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.4× its typical daily range (0.26%).
Jul 3
Dropped 0.84% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.8× its typical daily range (0.31%).
Jun 23
Jumped 0.33% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.28%).
Jun 19
Jumped 0.41% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.33%).
Jun 15
Jumped 0.60% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.32%).
Jun 12
Dropped 0.74% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.5× its typical daily range (0.30%).
Jun 10
Dropped 0.31% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.27%).
Jun 9
Dropped 0.53% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.26%).
Jun 8
Jumped 0.37% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.30%).
May 29
Jumped 0.77% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (0.33%).
May 25

Showing the 20 most recent of 25 events in this window.

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

0.98381 / 0.98309

bullish

The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.

56.4

bullish

At 56 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

0.00021

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

Not published

neutral

The data source for Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.00293 (0.30%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.00293 per bar, or 0.30% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 0.99371 on above-average volume
If it fires: 1.01358 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 0.97560 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 0.99371 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 1.01358. The broader trend already supports this, so it would be continuation rather than a reversal. Given the market is moving roughly 0.00293 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 0.97560 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 0.95609, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 0.99371 would void this idea

If 0.97560 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 0.95609. This runs against the prevailing trend, so it would most likely need a catalyst rather than developing on its own. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar: iron ore vs oil prices, RBA vs Bank of Canada policy, China demand data.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 09:11 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.