Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

The trans-Tasman cross between Australia's and New Zealand's dollars.

1.24680+0.65%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Bullish

88/100 confidence

Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar is clearly bullish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averagebullish
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bullish
MACD momentumbullish
RSI (14)bullish
Bollinger positionbullish
Market structurebullish

Key levels

1.25303+0.50%

Price1.24680

1.19270-4.34%

5.4%annualised · low

Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Jumped 0.65% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.6× its typical daily range (0.25%).
1d ago
Jumped 0.55% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.30%).
11d ago
Medium-term trend turned bullish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed above the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
16d ago
Jumped 1.18% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.7× its typical daily range (0.32%).
17d ago
Jumped 0.56% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.30%).
24d ago
Jumped 0.34% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.28%).
26d ago
Dropped 0.64% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (0.29%).
Aug 20
Dropped 0.41% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.26%).
Aug 19
Jumped 0.36% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.25%).
Aug 18
Dropped 0.33% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.25%).
Aug 14
Jumped 0.31% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.25%).
Aug 12
Dropped 0.34% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.28%).
Aug 6
Jumped 0.53% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.28%).
Aug 5
Dropped 0.36% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.26%).
Aug 3
Dropped 0.57% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (0.26%).
Jul 30
Dropped 0.44% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.24%).
Jul 29
Jumped 0.54% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.1× its typical daily range (0.25%).
Jul 23
Dropped 0.38% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.25%).
Jul 14
Dropped 0.35% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.24%).
Jul 10
Dropped 0.56% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.4× its typical daily range (0.23%).
Jul 9

Showing the 20 most recent of 25 events in this window.

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

1.22711 / 1.21762

bullish

The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.

78.9

bearish

At 79 the market is technically overbought. That is a sign of strength, not an automatic sell — but it does mean the easy part of the move is behind us and pullbacks get sharper.

0.00944

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

Not published

neutral

The data source for Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.00312 (0.25%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.00312 per bar, or 0.25% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 1.25303 on above-average volume
If it fires: 1.27809 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 1.19270 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 1.25303 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 1.27809. The broader trend already supports this, so it would be continuation rather than a reversal. Given the market is moving roughly 0.00312 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 1.19270 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 1.16885, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 1.25303 would void this idea

If 1.19270 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 1.16885. This runs against the prevailing trend, so it would most likely need a catalyst rather than developing on its own. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar: RBA vs RBNZ policy, relative commodity export prices, growth differentials.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Sep 19, 04:51 AM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.