Australian Dollar / US Dollar
The Aussie dollar, a common proxy for global growth.
Price · last 3 months
Live · Twelve DataMarket trend
Neutral
Australian Dollar / US Dollar is range-bound with no decisive edge either way.
Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.
Signals behind this
- Price vs long-term averageneutral
- EMA 20 vs EMA 50bullish
- MACD momentumbearish
- RSI (14)neutral
- Bollinger positionbearish
- Market structurebullish
Key levels
- 0.71383+0.14%
- 0.71802+0.73%
- 0.72051+1.07%
- 0.70715-0.80%
- 0.70240-1.47%
- 0.69641-2.31%
5.4%annualised · low
Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.
How this developed
Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.
China stimulus package larger than expected, targets property
NewsAuthorities announced a fiscal package above the size flagged in state media, with a meaningful share directed at completing stalled residential projects and recapitalising local government financing vehicles.
1d ago
Dropped 0.62% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.49%).
3d ago
Dropped 0.86% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.48%).
9d ago
Closed above 0.72051
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
12d ago
Closed above 0.71802
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
16d ago
Closed above 0.71802
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
23d ago
Jumped 0.80% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.55%).
29d ago
Closed above 0.71383
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
29d ago
Closed below 0.70240
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 3
Closed below 0.70240
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 1
Jumped 1.08% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.57%).
Jul 30
Closed below 0.69641
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 29
Jumped 0.82% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.55%).
Jul 14
Closed below 0.69641
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 23
Summary
Technical indicators
Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.
0.71485 / 0.71166
The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.
45.8
At 46 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.
-0.00041
MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.
Not published
The data source for Australian Dollar / US Dollar publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.
0.00333 (0.47%)
The market has been moving about 0.00333 per bar, or 0.47% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.
Two ways this could go
Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.
Potential bullish scenario
- Trigger
- A daily close above 0.71383 on above-average volume
- If it fires
- 0.71802 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
- Invalidation
- A move back below 0.70715 would void this idea
If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 0.71383 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 0.71802. In a range-bound market a clean break is what resolves the indecision, so the volume behind it matters more than the break itself. Given the market is moving roughly 0.00333 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.
Potential bearish scenario
- Trigger
- Losing 0.70715 and failing to reclaim it
- If it fires
- 0.70240, the next level where buyers previously defended
- Invalidation
- Reclaiming 0.71383 would void this idea
If 0.70715 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 0.70240. With no trend in place, a failure at support is as likely to resolve the range as a break higher. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.
Trading risks
- This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
- Indicators disagree with each other on this timeframe, which historically means choppy conditions and a higher rate of false signals.
- Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
- Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.
Key events to watch
- Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
- Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
- Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members
What actually drives Australian Dollar / US Dollar: iron ore prices, China data, RBA policy.
Latest market news
China stimulus package larger than expected, targets property
30-second summary
Authorities announced a fiscal package above the size flagged in state media, with a meaningful share directed at completing stalled residential projects and recapitalising local government financing vehicles.
This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
Generated Sep 18, 10:44 PM · Live market data from Twelve Data.