Avalanche

Avalanche's native token, priced against the US dollar.

101.487+0.62%

Price · last 3 months

Simulated

Market trend

Bearish

88/100 confidence

Avalanche is clearly bearish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averagebearish
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bearish
MACD momentumbearish
RSI (14)neutral
Bollinger positionbearish
Market structurebearish

Key levels

105.307+3.76%
105.825+4.27%
108.871+7.28%

Price101.487

99.463-1.99%
99.269-2.19%
98.822-2.63%

17.8%annualised · low

Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Dropped 2.85% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (2.32%).
5d ago
Closed below 99.463
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
5d ago
Closed below 99.269
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
5d ago
Closed below 98.822
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
5d ago
Medium-term trend turned bearish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed below the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
9d ago
Medium-term trend turned bullish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed above the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
17d ago
Closed above 105.825
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
17d ago
Closed above 105.307
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
18d ago
Closed above 105.307
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 2
Medium-term trend turned bearish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed below the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
Jun 26
Dropped 2.60% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (1.89%).
Jun 24
Dropped 2.69% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (1.72%).
Jun 21
Closed above 105.825
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 11
Jumped 1.98% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (1.72%).
Jun 7
Closed above 105.307
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 31
Closed above 105.825
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 31
Closed above 105.307
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 27
Jumped 2.28% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (1.80%).
May 25
Closed below 99.269
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 20
Closed below 99.463
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 19

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

101.380 / 102.524

bearish

The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.

47.9

neutral

At 48 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

-1.09105

bearish

MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.

1.07× average

neutral

Volume is close to its period average — participation is normal and is neither confirming nor contradicting the price move.

2.401 (2.37%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 2.401 per bar, or 2.37% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 105.307 on above-average volume
If it fires: 105.825 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 99.463 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 105.307 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 105.825. This would be counter-trend, so it needs stronger confirmation than usual — a single spike through the level is not enough. Given the market is moving roughly 2.401 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 99.463 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 99.269, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 105.307 would void this idea

If 99.463 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 99.269. This aligns with the prevailing trend, which makes it the higher-probability of the two paths here. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Crypto trades 24/7, so a position can move substantially while you are asleep with no session close to protect you.
Liquidity thins dramatically during weekends and holidays, which exaggerates both directions.
Regulatory headlines remain the single largest source of unhedgeable overnight risk.

Key events to watch

Spot ETF flow data, published daily
Exchange reserve balances and large on-chain transfers
Regulatory announcements and enforcement actions in major jurisdictions

What actually drives Avalanche: subnet adoption, DeFi total value locked, institutional partnerships.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 09:11 PM · No live source is configured for this market, so prices are simulated and do not represent real quotes.