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Crypto
BTCUSD

Bitcoin

Bitcoin priced against the US dollar.

81,176.01+6.23%

Price · last 3 months

Live · Twelve Data

Market trend

Bullish

88/100 confidence

Bitcoin is clearly bullish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

  • Price vs long-term averagebullish
  • EMA 20 vs EMA 50bullish
  • MACD momentumbearish
  • RSI (14)bullish
  • Bollinger positionbullish
  • Market structurebullish

Key levels

  • 81,478.87+0.37%
  • 82,300.00+1.38%
Price81,176.01
  • 76,155.29-6.18%
  • 65,494.67-19.32%
  • 64,696.42-20.30%

31.7%annualised · low

Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

  • Bitcoin ETFs log largest weekly inflow since launch

    News

    Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in net new money across every session last week, led by two of the largest issuers. Ether products saw smaller but positive flows for the third week running.

    4h ago

  • Jumped 6.23% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (3.08%).

    23h ago

  • Bitcoin network hashrate reaches all-time high

    News

    Mining capacity set a new record following the latest difficulty adjustment, with newer-generation machines making up an increasing share of the network.

    2d ago

  • Closed below 76,155.29

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    4d ago

  • Jumped 5.08% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (3.24%).

    16d ago

  • Jumped 7.28% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.5× its typical daily range (2.92%).

    29d ago

  • Jumped 5.32% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.1× its typical daily range (2.59%).

    Aug 20

  • Jumped 7.12% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.9× its typical daily range (2.45%).

    Aug 19

  • Jumped 2.59% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (2.03%).

    Aug 17

  • Closed below 64,696.42

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    Aug 10

  • Closed below 64,696.42

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    Jul 31

  • Closed below 64,696.42

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    Jul 27

  • Closed below 64,696.42

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    Jul 24

  • Closed below 65,494.67

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    Jul 23

  • Closed below 64,696.42

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    Jul 16

  • Jumped 4.35% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (3.41%).

    Jul 14

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

77,279.90 / 73,732.43

bullish

The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.

64.1

bullish

At 64 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

1,143.4341

bearish

MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.

Not published

neutral

The data source for Bitcoin publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

2,353.20 (2.90%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 2,353.20 per bar, or 2.90% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger
A daily close above 81,478.87 on above-average volume
If it fires
82,300.00 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation
A move back below 76,155.29 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 81,478.87 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 82,300.00. The broader trend already supports this, so it would be continuation rather than a reversal. Given the market is moving roughly 2,353.20 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger
Losing 76,155.29 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires
65,494.67, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation
Reclaiming 81,478.87 would void this idea

If 76,155.29 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 65,494.67. This runs against the prevailing trend, so it would most likely need a catalyst rather than developing on its own. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

  • This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
  • Crypto trades 24/7, so a position can move substantially while you are asleep with no session close to protect you.
  • Liquidity thins dramatically during weekends and holidays, which exaggerates both directions.
  • Regulatory headlines remain the single largest source of unhedgeable overnight risk.

Key events to watch

  • Spot ETF flow data, published daily
  • Exchange reserve balances and large on-chain transfers
  • Regulatory announcements and enforcement actions in major jurisdictions

What actually drives Bitcoin: ETF flows, global liquidity, risk appetite, halving supply dynamics.

Latest market news

Digital Assets Daily
bullish · high impact

Bitcoin ETFs log largest weekly inflow since launch

30-second summary

Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in net new money across every session last week, led by two of the largest issuers. Ether products saw smaller but positive flows for the third week running.

Digital Assets Daily
mixed · low impact

Bitcoin network hashrate reaches all-time high

30-second summary

Mining capacity set a new record following the latest difficulty adjustment, with newer-generation machines making up an increasing share of the network.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Sep 18, 10:43 PM · Live market data from Twelve Data.