Crypto

BTCUSD

Bitcoin

Bitcoin priced against the US dollar.

108,109.27+0.19%

Price · last 3 months

Simulated

Market trend

Neutral

41/100 confidence

Bitcoin is range-bound with no decisive edge either way.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averageneutral
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bearish
MACD momentumbullish
RSI (14)bullish
Bollinger positionbullish
Market structureneutral

Key levels

112,061.22+3.66%
113,577.59+5.06%
124,522.71+15.18%

Price108,109.27

107,320.97-0.73%
106,222.79-1.74%
98,930.67-8.49%

44.9%annualised · normal

Volatility is around its normal level for this market — no particular warning signal from the range itself.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Bitcoin ETFs log largest weekly inflow since launch
News
Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in net new money across every session last week, led by two of the largest issuers. Ether products saw smaller but positive flows for the third week running.
3h ago
Bitcoin network hashrate reaches all-time high
News
Mining capacity set a new record following the latest difficulty adjustment, with newer-generation machines making up an increasing share of the network.
2d ago
Closed below 98,930.67
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
16d ago
Closed below 98,930.67
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
21d ago
Closed below 107,320.97
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
23d ago
Closed below 106,222.79
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
23d ago
Dropped 8.69% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (4.88%).
26d ago
Closed above 113,577.59
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 4
Closed above 112,061.22
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 3
Closed below 107,320.97
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 1
Closed above 112,061.22
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 30
Closed above 112,061.22
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 25
Dropped 7.12% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (5.18%).
Jun 7
Closed above 124,522.71
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 1
Closed above 124,522.71
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 30
Closed above 113,577.59
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 24
Closed above 124,522.71
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 16
Closed above 113,577.59
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 10
Closed above 112,061.22
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 8
Closed above 113,577.59
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 8

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

106,160.24 / 108,936.77

bearish

The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.

58.0

bullish

At 58 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

204.9627

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

0.98× average

neutral

Volume is close to its period average — participation is normal and is neither confirming nor contradicting the price move.

5,299.34 (4.79%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 5,299.34 per bar, or 4.79% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 112,061.22 on above-average volume
If it fires: 113,577.59 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 107,320.97 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 112,061.22 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 113,577.59. In a range-bound market a clean break is what resolves the indecision, so the volume behind it matters more than the break itself. Given the market is moving roughly 5,299.34 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 107,320.97 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 106,222.79, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 112,061.22 would void this idea

If 107,320.97 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 106,222.79. With no trend in place, a failure at support is as likely to resolve the range as a break higher. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Indicators disagree with each other on this timeframe, which historically means choppy conditions and a higher rate of false signals.
Crypto trades 24/7, so a position can move substantially while you are asleep with no session close to protect you.
Liquidity thins dramatically during weekends and holidays, which exaggerates both directions.
Regulatory headlines remain the single largest source of unhedgeable overnight risk.

Key events to watch

Spot ETF flow data, published daily
Exchange reserve balances and large on-chain transfers
Regulatory announcements and enforcement actions in major jurisdictions

What actually drives Bitcoin: ETF flows, global liquidity, risk appetite, halving supply dynamics.

Latest market news

Digital Assets Dailyrecently

bullish · high impact

Bitcoin ETFs log largest weekly inflow since launch

30-second summary

Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in net new money across every session last week, led by two of the largest issuers. Ether products saw smaller but positive flows for the third week running.

Digital Assets Dailyrecently

mixed · low impact

Bitcoin network hashrate reaches all-time high

30-second summary

Mining capacity set a new record following the latest difficulty adjustment, with newer-generation machines making up an increasing share of the network.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 09:12 PM · No live source is configured for this market, so prices are simulated and do not represent real quotes.