Polkadot

Polkadot's native token, used to secure and coordinate its parachain network, priced against the US dollar.

0.8474+3.33%

Price · last 3 months

Live · CoinGecko

Market trend

Neutral

39/100 confidence

Polkadot is range-bound with no decisive edge either way.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averagebearish
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bearish
MACD momentumbullish
RSI (14)bullish
Bollinger positionbullish
Market structurebearish

Key levels

0.8671+2.33%
0.8968+5.83%
1.2129+43.13%

Price0.8474

0.8196-3.28%
0.8017-5.39%
0.7543-10.98%

46.8%annualised · normal

Volatility is around its normal level for this market — no particular warning signal from the range itself.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Dropped 8.86% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (3.84%).
9d ago
Closed below 0.8196
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
9d ago
Closed below 0.8017
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
9d ago
Closed below 0.8196
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
13d ago
Closed below 0.8196
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
17d ago
Jumped 6.15% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (4.83%).
26d ago
Closed above 0.8671
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
26d ago
Closed above 0.8671
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 3
Closed below 0.8196
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 30
Closed below 0.8017
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 28
Closed below 0.8196
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 27
Dropped 7.42% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (6.29%).
Jun 5
Dropped 6.77% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (5.54%).
Jun 4
Dropped 7.50% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (5.05%).
Jun 2

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

0.8108 / 0.8813

bearish

The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.

55.4

bullish

At 55 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

-0.01675

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

0.74× average

neutral

Activity is 26% below average. Thin participation makes the current move easier to reverse and less reliable as a signal.

0.0280 (3.30%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.0280 per bar, or 3.30% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 0.8671 on above-average volume
If it fires: 0.8968 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 0.8196 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 0.8671 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 0.8968. In a range-bound market a clean break is what resolves the indecision, so the volume behind it matters more than the break itself. Given the market is moving roughly 0.0280 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 0.8196 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 0.8017, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 0.8671 would void this idea

If 0.8196 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 0.8017. With no trend in place, a failure at support is as likely to resolve the range as a break higher. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Indicators disagree with each other on this timeframe, which historically means choppy conditions and a higher rate of false signals.
Crypto trades 24/7, so a position can move substantially while you are asleep with no session close to protect you.
Liquidity thins dramatically during weekends and holidays, which exaggerates both directions.
Regulatory headlines remain the single largest source of unhedgeable overnight risk.

Key events to watch

Spot ETF flow data, published daily
Exchange reserve balances and large on-chain transfers
Regulatory announcements and enforcement actions in major jurisdictions

What actually drives Polkadot: parachain auction activity, interoperability narrative, developer activity.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 09:13 PM · Live market data from CoinGecko.