US Dollar Index
The dollar measured against a basket of major currencies.
Price · last 3 months
SimulatedMarket trend
Neutral
US Dollar Index is range-bound with no decisive edge either way.
Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.
Signals behind this
- Price vs long-term averageneutral
- EMA 20 vs EMA 50bearish
- MACD momentumbullish
- RSI (14)neutral
- Bollinger positionbullish
- Market structurebearish
Key levels
- 103.774+0.29%
- 104.735+1.21%
- 106.242+2.67%
- 103.410-0.07%
- 103.045-0.42%
- 102.828-0.63%
5.1%annualised · low
Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.
How this developed
Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.
Fed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two
NewsThe Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and the updated dot plot now shows two cuts this year instead of three. The statement kept the language on inflation being 'somewhat elevated' and the Chair pushed back on questions about an earlier start to easing.
2h ago
Dollar slips as eurozone PMIs beat expectations
NewsComposite PMI for the bloc came in above consensus, with the services component driving the beat and manufacturing stabilising just under the expansion line. The euro rallied through the session high on the release.
6h ago
US core CPI cools to slowest annual pace in three years
NewsCore inflation excluding food and energy rose less than forecast on the month, with shelter finally decelerating and core services ex-housing flat. Headline was in line.
1d ago
Treasury yields climb after soft long-bond auction
NewsA 30-year auction tailed against the when-issued level with weak indirect participation, pushing yields higher across the curve into the close.
2d ago
Closed above 103.774
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
3d ago
Closed below 103.410
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
7d ago
Closed below 103.410
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
12d ago
Closed below 103.045
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
12d ago
Closed below 103.410
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
17d ago
Jumped 0.76% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.59%).
29d ago
Closed above 104.735
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
29d ago
Closed above 103.774
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 30
Closed above 103.774
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 28
Dropped 0.92% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.65%).
Jun 26
Closed above 106.242
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 15
Summary
Technical indicators
Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.
103.596 / 104.198
The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.
50.3
At 50 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.
-0.14312
MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.
Not published
The data source for US Dollar Index publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.
0.549 (0.53%)
The market has been moving about 0.549 per bar, or 0.53% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.
Two ways this could go
Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.
Potential bullish scenario
- Trigger
- A daily close above 103.774 on above-average volume
- If it fires
- 104.735 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
- Invalidation
- A move back below 103.410 would void this idea
If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 103.774 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 104.735. In a range-bound market a clean break is what resolves the indecision, so the volume behind it matters more than the break itself. Given the market is moving roughly 0.549 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.
Potential bearish scenario
- Trigger
- Losing 103.410 and failing to reclaim it
- If it fires
- 103.045, the next level where buyers previously defended
- Invalidation
- Reclaiming 103.774 would void this idea
If 103.410 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 103.045. With no trend in place, a failure at support is as likely to resolve the range as a break higher. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.
Trading risks
- This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
- Indicators disagree with each other on this timeframe, which historically means choppy conditions and a higher rate of false signals.
- Index moves are increasingly driven by a handful of megacap names, so concentration risk is higher than the diversification implies.
- Overnight gaps between the cash close and the next open can jump straight through a stop.
Key events to watch
- Megacap earnings, which drive a disproportionate share of index moves
- Federal Reserve policy decisions and the projection materials
- Monthly inflation and labour market data
What actually drives US Dollar Index: Fed policy, global growth spreads, haven flows.
Latest market news
Fed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two
30-second summary
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and the updated dot plot now shows two cuts this year instead of three. The statement kept the language on inflation being 'somewhat elevated' and the Chair pushed back on questions about an earlier start to easing.
Dollar slips as eurozone PMIs beat expectations
30-second summary
Composite PMI for the bloc came in above consensus, with the services component driving the beat and manufacturing stabilising just under the expansion line. The euro rallied through the session high on the release.
US core CPI cools to slowest annual pace in three years
30-second summary
Core inflation excluding food and energy rose less than forecast on the month, with shelter finally decelerating and core services ex-housing flat. Headline was in line.
Treasury yields climb after soft long-bond auction
30-second summary
A 30-year auction tailed against the when-issued level with weak indirect participation, pushing yields higher across the curve into the close.
This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
Generated Aug 4, 10:03 PM · No live source is configured for this market, so prices are simulated and do not represent real quotes.