Euro / Australian Dollar

The euro against the Aussie dollar, a spread between eurozone and commodity-linked growth.

1.63770-0.52%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Neutral

30/100 confidence

Euro / Australian Dollar is range-bound with no decisive edge either way.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averageneutral
EMA 20 vs EMA 50neutral
MACD momentumbullish
RSI (14)neutral
Bollinger positionneutral
Market structurebearish

Key levels

1.65460+1.03%

Price1.63770

1.61580-1.34%

4.7%annualised · low

Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Dropped 0.52% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.28%).
21h ago
Jumped 0.60% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (0.26%).
2d ago
Dropped 0.45% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.23%).
5d ago
Jumped 0.26% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.22%).
6d ago
Jumped 0.52% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.4× its typical daily range (0.21%).
7d ago
Jumped 0.25% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.19%).
8d ago
Dropped 0.53% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.5× its typical daily range (0.21%).
16d ago
Medium-term trend turned bearish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed below the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
16d ago
Dropped 0.57% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.0× its typical daily range (0.19%).
21d ago
Dropped 0.23% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.19%).
Jul 6
Dropped 0.28% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.19%).
Jul 3
Medium-term trend turned bullish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed above the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
Jun 30
Jumped 0.39% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.20%).
Jun 26
Jumped 0.47% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (0.21%).
Jun 23
Dropped 0.34% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.21%).
Jun 18
Dropped 0.27% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.23%).
Jun 12
Jumped 0.51% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (0.24%).
Jun 10
Jumped 0.49% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (0.22%).
Jun 9
Jumped 0.49% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (0.22%).
Jun 4
Dropped 0.49% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.24%).
May 29

Showing the 20 most recent of 30 events in this window.

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

1.63786 / 1.63945

bearish

The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.

49.5

neutral

At 50 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

-0.00066

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

Not published

neutral

The data source for Euro / Australian Dollar publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.00457 (0.28%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.00457 per bar, or 0.28% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 1.65460 on above-average volume
If it fires: 1.68769 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 1.61580 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 1.65460 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 1.68769. In a range-bound market a clean break is what resolves the indecision, so the volume behind it matters more than the break itself. Given the market is moving roughly 0.00457 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 1.61580 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 1.58348, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 1.65460 would void this idea

If 1.61580 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 1.58348. With no trend in place, a failure at support is as likely to resolve the range as a break higher. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Indicators disagree with each other on this timeframe, which historically means choppy conditions and a higher rate of false signals.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives Euro / Australian Dollar: ECB vs RBA policy, China demand data, global growth spreads.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 09:10 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.