Euro / Australian Dollar

The euro against the Aussie dollar, a spread between eurozone and commodity-linked growth.

1.60950-0.27%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Bearish

72/100 confidence

Euro / Australian Dollar is clearly bearish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averagebearish
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bearish
MACD momentumneutral
RSI (14)bearish
Bollinger positionbearish
Market structurebearish

Key levels

1.65460+2.80%

Price1.60950

1.60145-0.50%

4.4%annualised · low

Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Dropped 0.27% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.20%).
1d ago
Dropped 0.23% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.19%).
2d ago
Jumped 0.25% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.21%).
5d ago
Dropped 0.32% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.24%).
16d ago
Dropped 0.38% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.27%).
24d ago
Dropped 0.71% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.6× its typical daily range (0.27%).
29d ago
Jumped 0.76% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.1× its typical daily range (0.24%).
Aug 19
Dropped 0.38% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.21%).
Aug 17
Medium-term trend turned bearish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed below the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
Aug 12
Dropped 0.52% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.28%).
Aug 4
Jumped 0.60% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (0.26%).
Aug 3
Medium-term trend turned bullish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed above the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
Aug 3
Dropped 0.45% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.23%).
Jul 31
Jumped 0.26% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.22%).
Jul 30
Jumped 0.52% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.4× its typical daily range (0.21%).
Jul 29
Jumped 0.25% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.19%).
Jul 28
Dropped 0.53% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.5× its typical daily range (0.21%).
Jul 20
Dropped 0.57% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.0× its typical daily range (0.19%).
Jul 15
Dropped 0.23% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.19%).
Jul 6
Dropped 0.28% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.19%).
Jul 3

Showing the 20 most recent of 26 events in this window.

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

1.61883 / 1.62583

bearish

The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.

36.1

bearish

At 36 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

-0.00453

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

Not published

neutral

The data source for Euro / Australian Dollar publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.00319 (0.20%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.00319 per bar, or 0.20% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 1.65460 on above-average volume
If it fires: 1.68769 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 1.60145 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 1.65460 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 1.68769. This would be counter-trend, so it needs stronger confirmation than usual — a single spike through the level is not enough. Given the market is moving roughly 0.00319 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 1.60145 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 1.56942, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 1.65460 would void this idea

If 1.60145 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 1.56942. This aligns with the prevailing trend, which makes it the higher-probability of the two paths here. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives Euro / Australian Dollar: ECB vs RBA policy, China demand data, global growth spreads.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Sep 19, 01:39 AM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.