Euro / British Pound

The euro against sterling, a read on relative eurozone-UK growth.

0.85639+0.01%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Neutral

30/100 confidence

Euro / British Pound is range-bound with no decisive edge either way.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averageneutral
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bearish
MACD momentumbullish
RSI (14)neutral
Bollinger positionbullish
Market structurebearish

Key levels

0.87050+1.65%

Price0.85639

0.84873-0.89%

2.9%annualised · low

Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Dropped 0.17% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.14%).
5d ago
Jumped 0.37% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.1× its typical daily range (0.18%).
15d ago
Dropped 0.25% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.16%).
16d ago
Jumped 0.27% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.16%).
19d ago
Dropped 0.26% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.15%).
20d ago
Jumped 0.21% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.14%).
23d ago
Dropped 0.24% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.13%).
26d ago
Dropped 0.21% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.13%).
Jul 6
Dropped 0.36% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.7× its typical daily range (0.13%).
Jul 2
Dropped 0.24% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.1× its typical daily range (0.11%).
Jul 1
Dropped 0.31% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.4× its typical daily range (0.13%).
Jun 23
Dropped 0.21% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.12%).
Jun 22
Jumped 0.20% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.12%).
Jun 18
Jumped 0.21% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.13%).
Jun 15
Dropped 0.27% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.16%).
Jun 1
Jumped 0.28% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.17%).
May 27
Dropped 0.19% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.16%).
May 25
Dropped 0.40% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.4× its typical daily range (0.17%).
May 19
Jumped 0.50% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.1× its typical daily range (0.16%).
May 15
Jumped 0.36% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.6× its typical daily range (0.14%).
May 12

Showing the 20 most recent of 28 events in this window.

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

0.85531 / 0.85832

bearish

The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.

51.7

neutral

At 52 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

-0.00061

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

Not published

neutral

The data source for Euro / British Pound publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.00110 (0.13%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.00110 per bar, or 0.13% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 0.87050 on above-average volume
If it fires: 0.88791 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 0.84873 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 0.87050 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 0.88791. In a range-bound market a clean break is what resolves the indecision, so the volume behind it matters more than the break itself. Given the market is moving roughly 0.00110 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 0.84873 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 0.83176, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 0.87050 would void this idea

If 0.84873 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 0.83176. With no trend in place, a failure at support is as likely to resolve the range as a break higher. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Indicators disagree with each other on this timeframe, which historically means choppy conditions and a higher rate of false signals.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives Euro / British Pound: ECB vs Bank of England policy, eurozone-UK trade flows, growth differentials.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 09:14 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.