NASDAQ 100
The 100 largest non-financial companies on the NASDAQ.
Price · last 3 months
SimulatedMarket trend
Bullish
NASDAQ 100 is clearly bullish on this timeframe.
Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.
Signals behind this
- Price vs long-term averagebullish
- EMA 20 vs EMA 50bullish
- MACD momentumbullish
- RSI (14)bullish
- Bollinger positionbullish
- Market structurebullish
Key levels
- 24,516.19+2.07%
- 23,374.90-2.68%
- 22,229.35-7.45%
- 20,917.95-12.91%
20.2%annualised · elevated
Volatility is above its typical level for this market. Expect larger swings than usual in both directions and size positions accordingly.
How this developed
Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.
Fed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two
NewsThe Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and the updated dot plot now shows two cuts this year instead of three. The statement kept the language on inflation being 'somewhat elevated' and the Chair pushed back on questions about an earlier start to easing.
3h ago
Megacap earnings lift index futures as AI capex guidance raised
NewsTwo of the largest cloud providers raised full-year capital expenditure guidance and pointed to capacity constraints rather than demand as the limiting factor. Semiconductor names traded higher in sympathy.
6h ago
US core CPI cools to slowest annual pace in three years
NewsCore inflation excluding food and energy rose less than forecast on the month, with shelter finally decelerating and core services ex-housing flat. Headline was in line.
1d ago
Semiconductor export restrictions widened to more chip tiers
NewsNew rules extend licensing requirements to additional accelerator performance tiers and add several entities to the restricted list. Affected vendors said the revenue impact is already largely reflected in guidance.
1d ago
Medium-term trend turned bullish
Trend changeThe 20-period average crossed above the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
10d ago
Closed below 22,229.35
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
18d ago
Dropped 2.76% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (2.32%).
28d ago
Closed below 22,229.35
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
29d ago
Jumped 3.58% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (2.25%).
Aug 19
Dropped 2.75% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (2.04%).
Aug 12
Closed below 22,229.35
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 2
Closed below 22,229.35
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 30
Jumped 3.08% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (2.27%).
Jul 27
Dropped 2.84% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (2.08%).
Jul 26
Closed below 22,229.35
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 26
Closed below 23,374.90
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 19
Summary
Technical indicators
Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.
23,328.20 / 22,765.09
The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.
64.9
At 65 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.
604.0708
MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.
0.95× average
Volume is close to its period average — participation is normal and is neither confirming nor contradicting the price move.
445.02 (1.86%)
The market has been moving about 445.02 per bar, or 1.86% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.
Two ways this could go
Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.
Potential bullish scenario
- Trigger
- A daily close above 24,516.19 on above-average volume
- If it fires
- 25,006.51 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
- Invalidation
- A move back below 23,374.90 would void this idea
If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 24,516.19 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 25,006.51. The broader trend already supports this, so it would be continuation rather than a reversal. Given the market is moving roughly 445.02 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.
Potential bearish scenario
- Trigger
- Losing 23,374.90 and failing to reclaim it
- If it fires
- 22,229.35, the next level where buyers previously defended
- Invalidation
- Reclaiming 24,516.19 would void this idea
If 23,374.90 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 22,229.35. This runs against the prevailing trend, so it would most likely need a catalyst rather than developing on its own. With volatility elevated, a break can travel a long way quickly — the first move is often the largest.
Trading risks
- This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
- Volatility is elevated at roughly 20% annualised, so the usual position size carries more risk than usual right now.
- Index moves are increasingly driven by a handful of megacap names, so concentration risk is higher than the diversification implies.
- Overnight gaps between the cash close and the next open can jump straight through a stop.
Key events to watch
- Megacap earnings, which drive a disproportionate share of index moves
- Federal Reserve policy decisions and the projection materials
- Monthly inflation and labour market data
What actually drives NASDAQ 100: megacap earnings, AI capex expectations, long-duration rate sensitivity.
Latest market news
Fed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two
30-second summary
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and the updated dot plot now shows two cuts this year instead of three. The statement kept the language on inflation being 'somewhat elevated' and the Chair pushed back on questions about an earlier start to easing.
Megacap earnings lift index futures as AI capex guidance raised
30-second summary
Two of the largest cloud providers raised full-year capital expenditure guidance and pointed to capacity constraints rather than demand as the limiting factor. Semiconductor names traded higher in sympathy.
US core CPI cools to slowest annual pace in three years
30-second summary
Core inflation excluding food and energy rose less than forecast on the month, with shelter finally decelerating and core services ex-housing flat. Headline was in line.
Semiconductor export restrictions widened to more chip tiers
30-second summary
New rules extend licensing requirements to additional accelerator performance tiers and add several entities to the restricted list. Affected vendors said the revenue impact is already largely reflected in guidance.
This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
Generated Sep 18, 10:42 PM · No live source is configured for this market, so prices are simulated and do not represent real quotes.