NVIDIA Corporation
NVIDIA common stock, the bellwether for AI hardware demand.
Price · last 3 months
SimulatedMarket trend
Neutral
NVIDIA Corporation is range-bound with no decisive edge either way.
Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.
Signals behind this
- Price vs long-term averagebearish
- EMA 20 vs EMA 50bullish
- MACD momentumbearish
- RSI (14)neutral
- Bollinger positionbearish
- Market structurebullish
Key levels
- 154.72+5.81%
- 158.42+8.33%
- 165.96+13.49%
- 137.97-5.65%
- 127.13-13.06%
- 112.68-22.94%
37.4%annualised · elevated
Volatility is above its typical level for this market. Expect larger swings than usual in both directions and size positions accordingly.
How this developed
Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.
Megacap earnings lift index futures as AI capex guidance raised
NewsTwo of the largest cloud providers raised full-year capital expenditure guidance and pointed to capacity constraints rather than demand as the limiting factor. Semiconductor names traded higher in sympathy.
6h ago
Semiconductor export restrictions widened to more chip tiers
NewsNew rules extend licensing requirements to additional accelerator performance tiers and add several entities to the restricted list. Affected vendors said the revenue impact is already largely reflected in guidance.
1d ago
Index rebalance to shift meaningful weight toward technology
NewsThe scheduled quarterly rebalance is expected to move index weight toward the technology sector, with passive funds needing to trade a large notional at the close on the effective date.
3d ago
Closed above 154.72
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
12d ago
Closed above 158.42
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 6
Jumped 4.97% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (4.13%).
Aug 4
Closed above 154.72
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 4
Jumped 6.22% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (4.29%).
Jul 27
Summary
Technical indicators
Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.
148.14 / 145.02
The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.
47.5
At 47 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.
-0.7702
MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.
1.02× average
Volume is close to its period average — participation is normal and is neither confirming nor contradicting the price move.
6.55 (4.48%)
The market has been moving about 6.55 per bar, or 4.48% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.
Two ways this could go
Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.
Potential bullish scenario
- Trigger
- A daily close above 154.72 on above-average volume
- If it fires
- 158.42 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
- Invalidation
- A move back below 137.97 would void this idea
If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 154.72 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 158.42. In a range-bound market a clean break is what resolves the indecision, so the volume behind it matters more than the break itself. Given the market is moving roughly 6.55 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.
Potential bearish scenario
- Trigger
- Losing 137.97 and failing to reclaim it
- If it fires
- 127.13, the next level where buyers previously defended
- Invalidation
- Reclaiming 154.72 would void this idea
If 137.97 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 127.13. With no trend in place, a failure at support is as likely to resolve the range as a break higher. With volatility elevated, a break can travel a long way quickly — the first move is often the largest.
Trading risks
- This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
- Volatility is elevated at roughly 37% annualised, so the usual position size carries more risk than usual right now.
- Indicators disagree with each other on this timeframe, which historically means choppy conditions and a higher rate of false signals.
- Single-name equity carries idiosyncratic risk — earnings, guidance and management changes can override any technical picture.
- Earnings dates create scheduled gap risk that stops cannot protect against.
Key events to watch
- The next quarterly earnings date and guidance revisions
- Sector-wide news affecting comparable companies
- Analyst rating changes and index inclusion or removal
What actually drives NVIDIA Corporation: data-centre orders, export controls, hyperscaler capex.
Latest market news
Megacap earnings lift index futures as AI capex guidance raised
30-second summary
Two of the largest cloud providers raised full-year capital expenditure guidance and pointed to capacity constraints rather than demand as the limiting factor. Semiconductor names traded higher in sympathy.
Semiconductor export restrictions widened to more chip tiers
30-second summary
New rules extend licensing requirements to additional accelerator performance tiers and add several entities to the restricted list. Affected vendors said the revenue impact is already largely reflected in guidance.
Index rebalance to shift meaningful weight toward technology
30-second summary
The scheduled quarterly rebalance is expected to move index weight toward the technology sector, with passive funds needing to trade a large notional at the close on the effective date.
This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
Generated Sep 18, 10:41 PM · No live source is configured for this market, so prices are simulated and do not represent real quotes.