New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

The kiwi dollar against the US dollar, sensitive to global dairy and growth trends.

0.57106-0.56%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Bearish

88/100 confidence

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar is clearly bearish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averagebearish
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bearish
MACD momentumbearish
RSI (14)bearish
Bollinger positionbearish
Market structurebearish

Key levels

0.59869+4.84%

Price0.57106

0.56494-1.07%

7.6%annualised · normal

Volatility is around its normal level for this market — no particular warning signal from the range itself.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Dropped 0.56% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.39%).
23h ago
Medium-term trend turned bearish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed below the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
3d ago
Dropped 0.84% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.41%).
5d ago
Dropped 0.49% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.40%).
9d ago
Dropped 0.56% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.41%).
11d ago
Jumped 0.77% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.44%).
16d ago
Dropped 1.08% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.6× its typical daily range (0.41%).
17d ago
Dropped 0.43% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.36%).
18d ago
Dropped 0.48% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.35%).
19d ago
Jumped 0.75% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.42%).
29d ago
Jumped 1.07% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.7× its typical daily range (0.40%).
Aug 20
Dropped 0.55% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.36%).
Aug 18
Jumped 0.48% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.35%).
Aug 17
Jumped 0.76% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (0.34%).
Aug 14
Dropped 0.40% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.31%).
Aug 13
Medium-term trend turned bullish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed above the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
Aug 3
Jumped 1.17% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.1× its typical daily range (0.38%).
Jul 30
Dropped 0.55% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.38%).
Jul 23
Dropped 0.47% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.36%).
Jul 22
Jumped 0.66% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.37%).
Jul 16

Showing the 20 most recent of 31 events in this window.

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

0.58239 / 0.58408

bearish

The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.

29.1

bullish

At 29 the market is oversold. Sellers have been in control long enough that bounces become more likely, though oversold markets can stay oversold in a strong downtrend.

-0.00362

bearish

MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.

Not published

neutral

The data source for New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.00227 (0.40%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.00227 per bar, or 0.40% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 0.59869 on above-average volume
If it fires: 0.61066 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 0.56494 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 0.59869 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 0.61066. This would be counter-trend, so it needs stronger confirmation than usual — a single spike through the level is not enough. Given the market is moving roughly 0.00227 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 0.56494 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 0.55364, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 0.59869 would void this idea

If 0.56494 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 0.55364. This aligns with the prevailing trend, which makes it the higher-probability of the two paths here. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar: Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy, dairy export prices, risk sentiment.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Sep 18, 10:45 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.