S&P 500
The benchmark index of US large-cap equities.
Price · last 3 months
SimulatedMarket trend
Neutral
S&P 500 is range-bound with no decisive edge either way.
Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.
Signals behind this
- Price vs long-term averagebearish
- EMA 20 vs EMA 50neutral
- MACD momentumneutral
- RSI (14)bearish
- Bollinger positionbearish
- Market structurebearish
Key levels
- 6,204.88+0.45%
- 6,218.85+0.68%
- 6,228.82+0.84%
- 6,169.15-0.13%
- 6,115.78-0.99%
- 5,949.51-3.68%
13.3%annualised · normal
Volatility is around its normal level for this market — no particular warning signal from the range itself.
How this developed
Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.
Fed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two
NewsThe Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and the updated dot plot now shows two cuts this year instead of three. The statement kept the language on inflation being 'somewhat elevated' and the Chair pushed back on questions about an earlier start to easing.
2h ago
Megacap earnings lift index futures as AI capex guidance raised
NewsTwo of the largest cloud providers raised full-year capital expenditure guidance and pointed to capacity constraints rather than demand as the limiting factor. Semiconductor names traded higher in sympathy.
5h ago
Dropped 2.17% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (1.46%).
21h ago
Closed below 6,169.15
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
21h ago
US core CPI cools to slowest annual pace in three years
NewsCore inflation excluding food and energy rose less than forecast on the month, with shelter finally decelerating and core services ex-housing flat. Headline was in line.
1d ago
China stimulus package larger than expected, targets property
NewsAuthorities announced a fiscal package above the size flagged in state media, with a meaningful share directed at completing stalled residential projects and recapitalising local government financing vehicles.
1d ago
Closed above 6,218.85
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
2d ago
Closed above 6,228.82
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
2d ago
Closed above 6,204.88
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
4d ago
Closed below 6,169.15
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
5d ago
Closed above 6,204.88
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
7d ago
Closed below 6,115.78
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
11d ago
Closed below 6,169.15
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
12d ago
Closed above 6,228.82
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
18d ago
Closed above 6,204.88
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 3
Closed above 6,218.85
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 3
Closed above 6,228.82
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 3
Medium-term trend turned bullish
Trend changeThe 20-period average crossed above the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
Jun 29
Closed below 6,115.78
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 13
Dropped 1.85% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (1.43%).
Jun 11
Showing the 20 most recent of 27 events in this window.
Summary
Technical indicators
Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.
6,201.81 / 6,187.59
The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.
45.2
At 45 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.
-7.4582
MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.
1.04× average
Volume is close to its period average — participation is normal and is neither confirming nor contradicting the price move.
91.59 (1.49%)
The market has been moving about 91.59 per bar, or 1.49% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.
Two ways this could go
Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.
Potential bullish scenario
- Trigger
- A daily close above 6,204.88 on above-average volume
- If it fires
- 6,218.85 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
- Invalidation
- A move back below 6,169.15 would void this idea
If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 6,204.88 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 6,218.85. In a range-bound market a clean break is what resolves the indecision, so the volume behind it matters more than the break itself. Given the market is moving roughly 91.59 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.
Potential bearish scenario
- Trigger
- Losing 6,169.15 and failing to reclaim it
- If it fires
- 6,115.78, the next level where buyers previously defended
- Invalidation
- Reclaiming 6,204.88 would void this idea
If 6,169.15 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 6,115.78. With no trend in place, a failure at support is as likely to resolve the range as a break higher. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.
Trading risks
- This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
- Indicators disagree with each other on this timeframe, which historically means choppy conditions and a higher rate of false signals.
- Index moves are increasingly driven by a handful of megacap names, so concentration risk is higher than the diversification implies.
- Overnight gaps between the cash close and the next open can jump straight through a stop.
Key events to watch
- Megacap earnings, which drive a disproportionate share of index moves
- Federal Reserve policy decisions and the projection materials
- Monthly inflation and labour market data
What actually drives S&P 500: earnings breadth, Fed policy path, credit conditions.
Latest market news
Fed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two
30-second summary
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and the updated dot plot now shows two cuts this year instead of three. The statement kept the language on inflation being 'somewhat elevated' and the Chair pushed back on questions about an earlier start to easing.
Megacap earnings lift index futures as AI capex guidance raised
30-second summary
Two of the largest cloud providers raised full-year capital expenditure guidance and pointed to capacity constraints rather than demand as the limiting factor. Semiconductor names traded higher in sympathy.
US core CPI cools to slowest annual pace in three years
30-second summary
Core inflation excluding food and energy rose less than forecast on the month, with shelter finally decelerating and core services ex-housing flat. Headline was in line.
China stimulus package larger than expected, targets property
30-second summary
Authorities announced a fiscal package above the size flagged in state media, with a meaningful share directed at completing stalled residential projects and recapitalising local government financing vehicles.
This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
Generated Aug 4, 09:10 PM · No live source is configured for this market, so prices are simulated and do not represent real quotes.