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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.

Tesla common stock.

364.27-0.53%

Price · last 3 months

Live · Twelve Data

Market trend

Bullish

62/100 confidence

Tesla, Inc. is moderately bullish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

  • Price vs long-term averagebullish
  • EMA 20 vs EMA 50bearish
  • MACD momentumbullish
  • RSI (14)neutral
  • Bollinger positionbullish
  • Market structurebullish

Key levels

  • 366.50+0.61%
  • 368.60+1.19%
  • 415.38+14.03%
Price364.27
  • 354.05-2.81%
  • 342.53-5.97%
  • 297.38-18.36%

53.9%annualised · high

Realised volatility is running well above what is normal for Tesla, Inc.. Ranges are wide, stops need more room, and position sizes should be smaller than usual to keep risk constant.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

  • Index rebalance to shift meaningful weight toward technology

    News

    The scheduled quarterly rebalance is expected to move index weight toward the technology sector, with passive funds needing to trade a large notional at the close on the effective date.

    3d ago

  • Closed above 366.50

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    11d ago

  • Dropped 5.92% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (4.06%).

    15d ago

  • Jumped 5.42% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (4.06%).

    16d ago

  • Closed above 366.50

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    16d ago

  • Closed above 368.60

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    16d ago

  • Jumped 5.51% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (3.92%).

    19d ago

  • Closed above 366.50

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    19d ago

  • Closed below 354.05

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    22d ago

  • Closed below 354.05

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    26d ago

  • Jumped 5.14% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (4.01%).

    29d ago

  • Dropped 14.52% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.9× its typical daily range (5.09%).

    Jul 23

  • Closed below 354.05

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    Jul 23

  • Closed below 342.53

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    Jul 23

  • Jumped 6.69% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (5.14%).

    Jul 6

  • Closed above 415.38

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    Jul 6

  • Dropped 7.49% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (4.59%).

    Jul 2

  • Closed above 415.38

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    Jun 30

  • Jumped 8.46% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (4.71%).

    Jun 29

  • Dropped 5.79% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (4.33%).

    Jun 23

Showing the 20 most recent of 22 events in this window.

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

358.39 / 361.52

bearish

The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.

53.7

neutral

At 54 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

3.7450

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

0.88× average

neutral

Volume is close to its period average — participation is normal and is neither confirming nor contradicting the price move.

13.20 (3.62%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 13.20 per bar, or 3.62% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger
A daily close above 366.50 on above-average volume
If it fires
368.60 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation
A move back below 354.05 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 366.50 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 368.60. The broader trend already supports this, so it would be continuation rather than a reversal. Given the market is moving roughly 13.20 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger
Losing 354.05 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires
342.53, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation
Reclaiming 366.50 would void this idea

If 354.05 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 342.53. This runs against the prevailing trend, so it would most likely need a catalyst rather than developing on its own. With volatility elevated, a break can travel a long way quickly — the first move is often the largest.

Trading risks

  • This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
  • Volatility is high at roughly 54% annualised, so the usual position size carries more risk than usual right now.
  • Single-name equity carries idiosyncratic risk — earnings, guidance and management changes can override any technical picture.
  • Earnings dates create scheduled gap risk that stops cannot protect against.

Key events to watch

  • The next quarterly earnings date and guidance revisions
  • Sector-wide news affecting comparable companies
  • Analyst rating changes and index inclusion or removal

What actually drives Tesla, Inc.: delivery numbers, margin per vehicle, autonomy narrative.

Latest market news

Equities Wire
mixed · low impact

Index rebalance to shift meaningful weight toward technology

30-second summary

The scheduled quarterly rebalance is expected to move index weight toward the technology sector, with passive funds needing to trade a large notional at the close on the effective date.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Sep 19, 01:38 AM · Live market data from Twelve Data.