US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

The dollar against Canada's currency, closely tied to oil prices.

1.40610+0.24%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Bearish

38/100 confidence

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar is marginally bearish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averageneutral
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bullish
MACD momentumbearish
RSI (14)neutral
Bollinger positionbearish
Market structurebearish

Key levels

1.42400+1.27%

Price1.40610

1.36910-2.63%

3.8%annualised · low

Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Jumped 0.24% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.15%).
21h ago
Dropped 0.42% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.7× its typical daily range (0.16%).
6d ago
Jumped 0.30% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.17%).
15d ago
Dropped 0.35% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.18%).
20d ago
Dropped 0.27% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.17%).
21d ago
Dropped 0.24% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.17%).
28d ago
Dropped 0.41% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.20%).
Jun 26
Jumped 0.32% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.20%).
Jun 24
Jumped 0.81% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.9× its typical daily range (0.20%).
Jun 18
Jumped 0.24% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.17%).
Jun 16
Jumped 0.36% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.18%).
Jun 11
Jumped 0.40% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (0.18%).
Jun 8
Jumped 0.29% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.17%).
Jun 4
Dropped 0.35% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.1× its typical daily range (0.17%).
May 29
Jumped 0.23% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.18%).
May 22
Jumped 0.24% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.21%).
May 14
Jumped 0.29% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.21%).
May 12
Dropped 0.39% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.24%).
May 4
Jumped 0.56% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.1× its typical daily range (0.27%).
Apr 28
Dropped 0.59% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.5× its typical daily range (0.24%).
Apr 27

Showing the 20 most recent of 22 events in this window.

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

1.40810 / 1.40362

bullish

The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.

46.7

neutral

At 47 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

-0.00083

bearish

MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.

Not published

neutral

The data source for US Dollar / Canadian Dollar publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.00211 (0.15%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.00211 per bar, or 0.15% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 1.42400 on above-average volume
If it fires: 1.45248 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 1.36910 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 1.42400 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 1.45248. This would be counter-trend, so it needs stronger confirmation than usual — a single spike through the level is not enough. Given the market is moving roughly 0.00211 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 1.36910 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 1.34172, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 1.42400 would void this idea

If 1.36910 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 1.34172. This aligns with the prevailing trend, which makes it the higher-probability of the two paths here. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Indicators disagree with each other on this timeframe, which historically means choppy conditions and a higher rate of false signals.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives US Dollar / Canadian Dollar: oil prices, Bank of Canada policy, US-Canada rate differentials.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 09:10 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.