US Dollar / Chinese Yuan

The dollar against China's currency, managed within a daily reference band.

6.6976-0.15%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Bearish

77/100 confidence

US Dollar / Chinese Yuan is clearly bearish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averagebearish
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bearish
MACD momentumneutral
RSI (14)bearish
Bollinger positionbearish
Market structurebearish

Key levels

6.8002+1.53%

Price6.6976

6.6641-0.50%

1.7%annualised · low

Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Dropped 0.15% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.2× its typical daily range (0.05%).
23h ago
Dropped 0.07% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.04%).
3d ago
Jumped 0.05% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.04%).
4d ago
Dropped 0.12% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.4× its typical daily range (0.05%).
15d ago
Dropped 0.22% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.2× its typical daily range (0.07%).
Aug 20
Dropped 0.17% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.10%).
Jul 30
Dropped 0.16% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.12%).
Jul 20
Jumped 0.16% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.11%).
Jul 17
Dropped 0.32% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.6× its typical daily range (0.12%).
Jul 10
Jumped 0.21% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.12%).
Jul 6
Jumped 0.13% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.11%).
Jul 1
Dropped 0.13% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.1× its typical daily range (0.11%).
Jun 30
Dropped 0.19% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.12%).
Jun 25
Jumped 0.37% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.2× its typical daily range (0.12%).
Jun 24
Closed above 6.8002
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 24
Jumped 0.16% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.10%).
Jun 23
Jumped 0.18% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.10%).
Jun 18
Dropped 0.22% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (0.10%).
Jun 12
Jumped 0.14% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.09%).
Jun 10
Dropped 0.15% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.09%).
Jun 9

Showing the 20 most recent of 23 events in this window.

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

6.7150 / 6.7340

bearish

The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.

22.1

bullish

At 22 the market is oversold. Sellers have been in control long enough that bounces become more likely, though oversold markets can stay oversold in a strong downtrend.

-0.00992

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

Not published

neutral

The data source for US Dollar / Chinese Yuan publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.0031 (0.05%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.0031 per bar, or 0.05% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 6.8002 on above-average volume
If it fires: 6.9362 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 6.6641 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 6.8002 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 6.9362. This would be counter-trend, so it needs stronger confirmation than usual — a single spike through the level is not enough. Given the market is moving roughly 0.0031 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 6.6641 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 6.5308, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 6.8002 would void this idea

If 6.6641 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 6.5308. This aligns with the prevailing trend, which makes it the higher-probability of the two paths here. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives US Dollar / Chinese Yuan: PBoC daily fixing, China trade data, capital flow controls.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Sep 18, 10:42 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.