US Dollar / Hong Kong Dollar

The dollar against the Hong Kong dollar, pegged within a narrow band by the currency board.

7.8449-0.00%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Neutral

32/100 confidence

US Dollar / Hong Kong Dollar is range-bound with no decisive edge either way.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averageneutral
EMA 20 vs EMA 50neutral
MACD momentumneutral
RSI (14)bullish
Bollinger positionbullish
Market structureneutral

Key levels

7.8473+0.03%

Price7.8449

7.8360-0.11%

0.3%annualised · low

Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Jumped 0.02% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.02%).
5d ago
Jumped 0.04% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (0.02%).
18d ago
Dropped 0.02% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.02%).
19d ago
Dropped 0.05% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.6× its typical daily range (0.02%).
26d ago
Dropped 0.04% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.6× its typical daily range (0.02%).
29d ago
Jumped 0.03% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.01%).
Aug 20
Dropped 0.03% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.1× its typical daily range (0.01%).
Aug 19
Dropped 0.02% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.01%).
Aug 18
Dropped 0.03% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (0.01%).
Aug 17
Jumped 0.02% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.01%).
Aug 6
Jumped 0.02% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.01%).
Jul 30
Jumped 0.02% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.01%).
Jul 24
Jumped 0.05% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.9× its typical daily range (0.02%).
Jul 10
Dropped 0.04% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.4× its typical daily range (0.02%).
Jul 9
Dropped 0.04% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.2× its typical daily range (0.01%).
Jul 8
Jumped 0.03% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.01%).
Jul 1
Jumped 0.02% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.01%).
Jun 26
Jumped 0.03% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.02%).
Jun 18
Jumped 0.03% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.01%).
Jun 17
Dropped 0.02% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.01%).
Jun 15

Showing the 20 most recent of 24 events in this window.

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

7.8426 / 7.8416

bullish

The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.

59.5

bullish

At 59 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

0.00077

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

Not published

neutral

The data source for US Dollar / Hong Kong Dollar publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.0010 (0.01%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.0010 per bar, or 0.01% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 7.8473 on above-average volume
If it fires: 8.0042 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 7.8360 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 7.8473 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 8.0042. In a range-bound market a clean break is what resolves the indecision, so the volume behind it matters more than the break itself. Given the market is moving roughly 0.0010 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 7.8360 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 7.6793, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 7.8473 would void this idea

If 7.8360 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 7.6793. With no trend in place, a failure at support is as likely to resolve the range as a break higher. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Indicators disagree with each other on this timeframe, which historically means choppy conditions and a higher rate of false signals.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives US Dollar / Hong Kong Dollar: Hong Kong currency board interventions, US rate policy, capital flows.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Sep 18, 10:46 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.