US Dollar / Kenyan Shilling

The dollar against the shilling, East Africa's reference rate.

129.5260.00%

Price · last 3 months

Simulated shape

Market trend

Bullish

88/100 confidence

US Dollar / Kenyan Shilling is clearly bullish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averagebullish
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bullish
MACD momentumbullish
RSI (14)bullish
Bollinger positionbullish
Market structureneutral

Key levels

129.729+0.16%
130.519+0.77%
133.393+2.99%

Price129.526

127.181-1.81%
126.767-2.13%
126.040-2.69%

19.3%annualised · high

Realised volatility is running well above what is normal for US Dollar / Kenyan Shilling. Ranges are wide, stops need more room, and position sizes should be smaller than usual to keep risk constant.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Closed above 129.729
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
3d ago
Closed below 126.040
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
14d ago
Dropped 2.62% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (1.97%).
15d ago
Closed below 127.181
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
15d ago
Closed below 126.767
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
15d ago
Closed above 129.729
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
16d ago
Closed below 126.040
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
25d ago
Closed below 126.767
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 20
Closed below 126.040
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 20
Dropped 2.53% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (2.16%).
Aug 16
Closed below 127.181
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 16
Closed below 126.767
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 16
Closed below 126.040
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 16
Closed above 129.729
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 10
Closed above 130.519
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 10
Closed below 126.040
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 6
Closed below 127.181
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 2
Closed below 126.767
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 2
Jumped 2.73% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (2.26%).
Jul 29

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

126.631 / 125.437

bullish

The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.

60.2

bullish

At 60 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

0.81950

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

0.98× average

neutral

Volume is close to its period average — participation is normal and is neither confirming nor contradicting the price move.

2.514 (1.94%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 2.514 per bar, or 1.94% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 129.729 on above-average volume
If it fires: 130.519 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 127.181 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 129.729 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 130.519. The broader trend already supports this, so it would be continuation rather than a reversal. Given the market is moving roughly 2.514 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 127.181 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 126.767, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 129.729 would void this idea

If 127.181 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 126.767. This runs against the prevailing trend, so it would most likely need a catalyst rather than developing on its own. With volatility elevated, a break can travel a long way quickly — the first move is often the largest.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Volatility is high at roughly 19% annualised, so the usual position size carries more risk than usual right now.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives US Dollar / Kenyan Shilling: tea and horticulture exports, Central Bank of Kenya policy, eurobond maturities, diaspora remittances.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Sep 19, 03:48 AM · The current price is live, but no source covers this timeframe — the shape of this chart is simulated and scaled to the live price. Treat the pattern as illustrative, not as real history.