US Dollar / Mexican Peso

The dollar against the peso, closely tied to US-Mexico trade and rate differentials.

17.1776-0.06%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Bullish

57/100 confidence

US Dollar / Mexican Peso is moderately bullish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averageneutral
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bearish
MACD momentumbullish
RSI (14)bullish
Bollinger positionbullish
Market structurebullish

Key levels

17.5754+2.32%

Price17.1776

16.8980-1.63%

5.7%annualised · low

Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Jumped 0.50% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.26%).
4d ago
Jumped 0.56% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (0.25%).
5d ago
Dropped 0.29% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.22%).
10d ago
Dropped 0.66% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.9× its typical daily range (0.23%).
15d ago
Jumped 0.36% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.24%).
19d ago
Dropped 0.55% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.1× its typical daily range (0.26%).
29d ago
Dropped 0.34% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.25%).
Aug 14
Dropped 0.36% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.26%).
Aug 12
Dropped 0.56% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.28%).
Aug 7
Medium-term trend turned bearish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed below the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
Aug 6
Dropped 0.44% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.26%).
Aug 5
Dropped 0.29% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.25%).
Aug 3
Dropped 0.43% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.25%).
Jul 30
Dropped 0.55% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.30%).
Jul 21
Dropped 0.40% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.32%).
Jul 15
Jumped 0.87% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (0.38%).
Jul 8
Dropped 0.63% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.35%).
Jul 3
Dropped 0.70% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.37%).
Jun 26
Jumped 0.76% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.1× its typical daily range (0.37%).
Jun 24
Closed above 17.5754
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 24

Showing the 20 most recent of 26 events in this window.

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

17.0575 / 17.1290

bearish

The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.

60.1

bullish

At 60 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

0.00333

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

Not published

neutral

The data source for US Dollar / Mexican Peso publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.0413 (0.24%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.0413 per bar, or 0.24% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 17.5754 on above-average volume
If it fires: 17.9269 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 16.8980 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 17.5754 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 17.9269. The broader trend already supports this, so it would be continuation rather than a reversal. Given the market is moving roughly 0.0413 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 16.8980 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 16.5600, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 17.5754 would void this idea

If 16.8980 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 16.5600. This runs against the prevailing trend, so it would most likely need a catalyst rather than developing on its own. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives US Dollar / Mexican Peso: Banco de México policy, US-Mexico trade flows, emerging-market risk appetite.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Sep 18, 10:42 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.