US Dollar / Norwegian Krone

The dollar against Norway's currency, closely tied to oil exports.

9.5462+0.14%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Bearish

66/100 confidence

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone is moderately bearish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averageneutral
EMA 20 vs EMA 50neutral
MACD momentumbearish
RSI (14)bearish
Bollinger positionbearish
Market structurebearish

Key levels

9.9381+4.11%

Price9.5462

9.1690-3.95%

8.5%annualised · normal

Volatility is around its normal level for this market — no particular warning signal from the range itself.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Dropped 1.04% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.6× its typical daily range (0.40%).
6d ago
Jumped 0.78% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.1× its typical daily range (0.37%).
9d ago
Dropped 0.46% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.34%).
12d ago
Dropped 0.43% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.34%).
15d ago
Dropped 0.82% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (0.37%).
20d ago
Dropped 0.57% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.35%).
22d ago
Dropped 0.44% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.36%).
28d ago
Dropped 0.60% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.38%).
Jul 3
Jumped 0.52% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.44%).
Jun 25
Jumped 0.58% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.44%).
Jun 24
Jumped 1.19% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.8× its typical daily range (0.43%).
Jun 23
Jumped 2.03% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 4.8× its typical daily range (0.42%).
Jun 18
Medium-term trend turned bullish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed above the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
Jun 16
Jumped 0.46% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.36%).
Jun 10
Jumped 1.54% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 4.1× its typical daily range (0.37%).
Jun 8
Dropped 0.42% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.35%).
May 29
Dropped 0.52% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.42%).
May 21
Dropped 0.58% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.46%).
May 18
Jumped 1.07% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.4× its typical daily range (0.45%).
May 15
Jumped 0.64% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.41%).
May 14

Showing the 20 most recent of 23 events in this window.

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

9.6315 / 9.6126

bullish

The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.

39.9

bearish

At 40 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

-0.03295

bearish

MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.

Not published

neutral

The data source for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.0349 (0.37%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.0349 per bar, or 0.37% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 9.9381 on above-average volume
If it fires: 10.1369 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 9.1690 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 9.9381 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 10.1369. This would be counter-trend, so it needs stronger confirmation than usual — a single spike through the level is not enough. Given the market is moving roughly 0.0349 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 9.1690 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 8.9856, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 9.9381 would void this idea

If 9.1690 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 8.9856. This aligns with the prevailing trend, which makes it the higher-probability of the two paths here. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives US Dollar / Norwegian Krone: oil prices, Norges Bank policy, risk sentiment.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 09:14 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.