US Dollar / Norwegian Krone

The dollar against Norway's currency, closely tied to oil exports.

9.4324+0.04%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Neutral

30/100 confidence

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone is range-bound with no decisive edge either way.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averageneutral
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bearish
MACD momentumbullish
RSI (14)bullish
Bollinger positionbullish
Market structurebearish

Key levels

9.9381+5.36%

Price9.4324

9.1808-2.67%

7.4%annualised · normal

Volatility is around its normal level for this market — no particular warning signal from the range itself.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Jumped 0.83% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.4× its typical daily range (0.34%).
2d ago
Jumped 0.93% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.7× its typical daily range (0.34%).
9d ago
Dropped 0.77% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.6× its typical daily range (0.29%).
10d ago
Dropped 0.34% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.27%).
16d ago
Dropped 0.47% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.36%).
29d ago
Dropped 0.72% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.1× its typical daily range (0.35%).
Aug 20
Medium-term trend turned bearish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed below the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
Aug 17
Dropped 0.77% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (0.36%).
Aug 14
Jumped 0.55% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.33%).
Aug 13
Dropped 0.36% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.31%).
Aug 12
Dropped 0.42% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.1× its typical daily range (0.37%).
Aug 5
Dropped 1.04% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.6× its typical daily range (0.40%).
Jul 30
Jumped 0.78% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.1× its typical daily range (0.37%).
Jul 27
Dropped 0.46% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.33%).
Jul 24
Dropped 0.43% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.33%).
Jul 21
Dropped 0.82% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (0.36%).
Jul 16
Dropped 0.57% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.34%).
Jul 14
Dropped 0.44% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.35%).
Jul 8
Dropped 0.60% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.36%).
Jul 3
Jumped 0.52% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.41%).
Jun 25

Showing the 20 most recent of 27 events in this window.

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

9.3518 / 9.4127

bearish

The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.

58.1

bullish

At 58 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

-0.01999

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

Not published

neutral

The data source for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.0299 (0.32%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.0299 per bar, or 0.32% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 9.9381 on above-average volume
If it fires: 10.1369 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 9.1808 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 9.9381 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 10.1369. In a range-bound market a clean break is what resolves the indecision, so the volume behind it matters more than the break itself. Given the market is moving roughly 0.0299 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 9.1808 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 8.9972, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 9.9381 would void this idea

If 9.1808 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 8.9972. With no trend in place, a failure at support is as likely to resolve the range as a break higher. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Indicators disagree with each other on this timeframe, which historically means choppy conditions and a higher rate of false signals.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives US Dollar / Norwegian Krone: oil prices, Norges Bank policy, risk sentiment.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Sep 18, 11:33 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.