Crude Oil (WTI)
West Texas Intermediate crude oil, per barrel.
Price · last 3 months
SimulatedMarket trend
Bearish
Crude Oil (WTI) is moderately bearish on this timeframe.
Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.
Signals behind this
- Price vs long-term averagebearish
- EMA 20 vs EMA 50bearish
- MACD momentumbullish
- RSI (14)bearish
- Bollinger positionbearish
- Market structurebearish
Key levels
- 73.65+2.50%
- 74.42+3.57%
- 80.51+12.05%
- 71.06-1.10%
- 70.73-1.55%
- 69.40-3.41%
34.7%annualised · normal
Volatility is around its normal level for this market — no particular warning signal from the range itself.
How this developed
Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.
OPEC+ signals it will unwind voluntary cuts more slowly
NewsDelegates indicated the group will phase supply back into the market at a slower pace than the schedule published earlier this year, citing softer demand indicators from Asia.
9h ago
Crude inventories build more than expected for second week
NewsCommercial crude stocks rose well above the consensus draw, while gasoline inventories also built ahead of the seasonal demand peak. Refinery utilisation ticked lower.
21h ago
China stimulus package larger than expected, targets property
NewsAuthorities announced a fiscal package above the size flagged in state media, with a meaningful share directed at completing stalled residential projects and recapitalising local government financing vehicles.
1d ago
Closed above 73.65
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
5d ago
Closed above 73.65
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
10d ago
Closed above 74.42
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
10d ago
Closed above 73.65
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
18d ago
Closed above 74.42
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
18d ago
Medium-term trend turned bearish
Trend changeThe 20-period average crossed below the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
22d ago
Closed below 71.06
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
22d ago
Closed below 70.73
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
22d ago
Dropped 5.75% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (3.94%).
24d ago
Closed below 71.06
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
24d ago
Closed below 70.73
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
24d ago
Closed above 74.42
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
25d ago
Dropped 4.86% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (3.59%).
26d ago
Jumped 4.96% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (3.76%).
Aug 15
Closed above 80.51
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 9
Closed above 80.51
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 6
Closed above 80.51
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 26
Showing the 20 most recent of 23 events in this window.
Summary
Technical indicators
Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.
73.57 / 74.63
The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.
44.8
At 45 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.
-0.8594
MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.
1.04× average
Volume is close to its period average — participation is normal and is neither confirming nor contradicting the price move.
2.63 (3.64%)
The market has been moving about 2.63 per bar, or 3.64% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.
Two ways this could go
Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.
Potential bullish scenario
- Trigger
- A daily close above 73.65 on above-average volume
- If it fires
- 74.42 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
- Invalidation
- A move back below 71.06 would void this idea
If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 73.65 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 74.42. This would be counter-trend, so it needs stronger confirmation than usual — a single spike through the level is not enough. Given the market is moving roughly 2.63 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.
Potential bearish scenario
- Trigger
- Losing 71.06 and failing to reclaim it
- If it fires
- 70.73, the next level where buyers previously defended
- Invalidation
- Reclaiming 73.65 would void this idea
If 71.06 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 70.73. This aligns with the prevailing trend, which makes it the higher-probability of the two paths here. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.
Trading risks
- This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
- Geopolitical events move crude faster than any technical level can account for.
- Weekly inventory data routinely produces multi-percent moves within minutes of release.
Key events to watch
- Weekly crude and product inventory reports
- OPEC+ meetings and any change to production guidance
- Geopolitical developments in major producing regions
What actually drives Crude Oil (WTI): OPEC+ supply policy, inventory builds, geopolitical risk premium, Chinese demand.
Latest market news
OPEC+ signals it will unwind voluntary cuts more slowly
30-second summary
Delegates indicated the group will phase supply back into the market at a slower pace than the schedule published earlier this year, citing softer demand indicators from Asia.
Crude inventories build more than expected for second week
30-second summary
Commercial crude stocks rose well above the consensus draw, while gasoline inventories also built ahead of the seasonal demand peak. Refinery utilisation ticked lower.
China stimulus package larger than expected, targets property
30-second summary
Authorities announced a fiscal package above the size flagged in state media, with a meaningful share directed at completing stalled residential projects and recapitalising local government financing vehicles.
This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
Generated Sep 18, 10:45 PM · No live source is configured for this market, so prices are simulated and do not represent real quotes.