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Commodities
XAGUSD

Silver

Spot silver in US dollars per troy ounce.

45.774-0.02%

Price · last 3 months

Simulated

Market trend

Bullish

88/100 confidence

Silver is clearly bullish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

  • Price vs long-term averagebullish
  • EMA 20 vs EMA 50bullish
  • MACD momentumbullish
  • RSI (14)bullish
  • Bollinger positionbullish
  • Market structurebullish

Key levels

  • 46.706+2.03%
Price45.774
  • 44.054-3.76%
  • 41.357-9.65%
  • 37.378-18.34%

24.6%annualised · elevated

Volatility is above its typical level for this market. Expect larger swings than usual in both directions and size positions accordingly.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

  • Gold pushes to fresh record as central bank buying accelerates

    News

    Official-sector demand ran above trend for a fourth straight quarter, with emerging-market central banks the dominant buyers. Spot gold cleared its previous high in thin Asian trade before consolidating.

    4h ago

  • China stimulus package larger than expected, targets property

    News

    Authorities announced a fiscal package above the size flagged in state media, with a meaningful share directed at completing stalled residential projects and recapitalising local government financing vehicles.

    1d ago

  • Gold-silver ratio compresses to two-year low

    News

    Silver outperformed gold for a fifth consecutive week, driven by industrial demand from solar manufacturing alongside the same monetary bid supporting the wider complex.

    2d ago

  • Jumped 3.28% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (2.79%).

    16d ago

  • Jumped 3.91% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (2.83%).

    21d ago

  • Medium-term trend turned bullish

    Trend change

    The 20-period average crossed above the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.

    26d ago

  • Dropped 4.08% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (2.78%).

    Jul 4

  • Jumped 4.04% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (3.11%).

    Jun 19

  • Closed below 37.378

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    Jun 15

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

43.659 / 41.747

bullish

The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.

76.0

bearish

At 76 the market is technically overbought. That is a sign of strength, not an automatic sell — but it does mean the easy part of the move is behind us and pullbacks get sharper.

1.35645

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

1.01× average

neutral

Volume is close to its period average — participation is normal and is neither confirming nor contradicting the price move.

1.039 (2.27%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 1.039 per bar, or 2.27% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger
A daily close above 46.706 on above-average volume
If it fires
47.640 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation
A move back below 44.054 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 46.706 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 47.640. The broader trend already supports this, so it would be continuation rather than a reversal. Given the market is moving roughly 1.039 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger
Losing 44.054 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires
41.357, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation
Reclaiming 46.706 would void this idea

If 44.054 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 41.357. This runs against the prevailing trend, so it would most likely need a catalyst rather than developing on its own. With volatility elevated, a break can travel a long way quickly — the first move is often the largest.

Trading risks

  • This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
  • Volatility is elevated at roughly 25% annualised, so the usual position size carries more risk than usual right now.
  • Physical markets are exposed to supply shocks that no chart can anticipate.
  • Futures roll and contango can erode returns for anyone holding through expiry.

Key events to watch

  • Central bank reserve reports and official-sector buying data
  • US real yields and the dollar index, the two dominant macro drivers
  • Physical demand data from the largest consuming markets

What actually drives Silver: industrial demand, gold ratio, solar manufacturing.

Latest market news

Metals Desk
bullish · moderate impact

Gold pushes to fresh record as central bank buying accelerates

30-second summary

Official-sector demand ran above trend for a fourth straight quarter, with emerging-market central banks the dominant buyers. Spot gold cleared its previous high in thin Asian trade before consolidating.

Asia Markets
bullish · high impact

China stimulus package larger than expected, targets property

30-second summary

Authorities announced a fiscal package above the size flagged in state media, with a meaningful share directed at completing stalled residential projects and recapitalising local government financing vehicles.

Metals Desk
bullish · low impact

Gold-silver ratio compresses to two-year low

30-second summary

Silver outperformed gold for a fifth consecutive week, driven by industrial demand from solar manufacturing alongside the same monetary bid supporting the wider complex.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 09:15 PM · No live source is configured for this market, so prices are simulated and do not represent real quotes.