Skip to content
Commodities
XAUUSD

Gold

Spot gold priced in US dollars per troy ounce.

4,380.12+0.07%

Price · last 3 months

Live · Twelve Data

Market trend

Neutral

30/100 confidence

Gold is range-bound with no decisive edge either way.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

  • Price vs long-term averageneutral
  • EMA 20 vs EMA 50bullish
  • MACD momentumbearish
  • RSI (14)neutral
  • Bollinger positionneutral
  • Market structurebearish

Key levels

  • 4,446.49+1.52%
  • 4,514.11+3.06%
  • 4,695.94+7.21%
Price4,380.12
  • 4,325.97-1.24%
  • 4,310.61-1.59%
  • 4,283.21-2.21%

20.6%annualised · normal

Volatility is around its normal level for this market — no particular warning signal from the range itself.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

  • Fed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two

    News

    The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and the updated dot plot now shows two cuts this year instead of three. The statement kept the language on inflation being 'somewhat elevated' and the Chair pushed back on questions about an earlier start to easing.

    3h ago

  • Gold pushes to fresh record as central bank buying accelerates

    News

    Official-sector demand ran above trend for a fourth straight quarter, with emerging-market central banks the dominant buyers. Spot gold cleared its previous high in thin Asian trade before consolidating.

    5h ago

  • US core CPI cools to slowest annual pace in three years

    News

    Core inflation excluding food and energy rose less than forecast on the month, with shelter finally decelerating and core services ex-housing flat. Headline was in line.

    1d ago

  • Gold-silver ratio compresses to two-year low

    News

    Silver outperformed gold for a fifth consecutive week, driven by industrial demand from solar manufacturing alongside the same monetary bid supporting the wider complex.

    2d ago

  • Closed below 4,283.21

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    3d ago

  • Closed below 4,325.97

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    5d ago

  • Closed below 4,310.61

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    5d ago

  • Closed below 4,325.97

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    9d ago

  • Closed above 4,446.49

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    16d ago

  • Dropped 2.70% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (1.71%).

    18d ago

  • Dropped 3.15% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (1.78%).

    22d ago

  • Jumped 4.33% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.5× its typical daily range (1.74%).

    Aug 19

  • Closed above 4,446.49

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    Aug 19

  • Closed above 4,514.11

    Level break

    That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.

    Aug 19

  • Dropped 1.83% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (1.49%).

    Aug 18

  • Jumped 2.40% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (1.83%).

    Aug 7

  • Jumped 4.16% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.4× its typical daily range (1.77%).

    Aug 5

  • Dropped 2.68% in one bar

    Price move

    A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (1.78%).

    Jul 13

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

4,369.99 / 4,344.62

bullish

The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.

50.6

neutral

At 51 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

-19.9595

bearish

MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.

Not published

neutral

The data source for Gold publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

71.93 (1.64%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 71.93 per bar, or 1.64% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger
A daily close above 4,446.49 on above-average volume
If it fires
4,514.11 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation
A move back below 4,325.97 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 4,446.49 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 4,514.11. In a range-bound market a clean break is what resolves the indecision, so the volume behind it matters more than the break itself. Given the market is moving roughly 71.93 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger
Losing 4,325.97 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires
4,310.61, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation
Reclaiming 4,446.49 would void this idea

If 4,325.97 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 4,310.61. With no trend in place, a failure at support is as likely to resolve the range as a break higher. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

  • This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
  • Indicators disagree with each other on this timeframe, which historically means choppy conditions and a higher rate of false signals.
  • Physical markets are exposed to supply shocks that no chart can anticipate.
  • Futures roll and contango can erode returns for anyone holding through expiry.

Key events to watch

  • Central bank reserve reports and official-sector buying data
  • US real yields and the dollar index, the two dominant macro drivers
  • Physical demand data from the largest consuming markets

What actually drives Gold: real yields, US dollar strength, central bank buying, safe-haven demand.

Latest market news

Market Wire
bearish · high impact

Fed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two

30-second summary

The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and the updated dot plot now shows two cuts this year instead of three. The statement kept the language on inflation being 'somewhat elevated' and the Chair pushed back on questions about an earlier start to easing.

Metals Desk
bullish · moderate impact

Gold pushes to fresh record as central bank buying accelerates

30-second summary

Official-sector demand ran above trend for a fourth straight quarter, with emerging-market central banks the dominant buyers. Spot gold cleared its previous high in thin Asian trade before consolidating.

Macro Brief
bullish · high impact

US core CPI cools to slowest annual pace in three years

30-second summary

Core inflation excluding food and energy rose less than forecast on the month, with shelter finally decelerating and core services ex-housing flat. Headline was in line.

Metals Desk
bullish · low impact

Gold-silver ratio compresses to two-year low

30-second summary

Silver outperformed gold for a fifth consecutive week, driven by industrial demand from solar manufacturing alongside the same monetary bid supporting the wider complex.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Sep 18, 10:46 PM · Live market data from Twelve Data.