Stellar

Stellar's native token, built for cross-border payment rails, priced against the US dollar.

0.1698-1.28%

Price · last 3 months

Live · CoinGecko

Market trend

Bearish

88/100 confidence

Stellar is clearly bearish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averagebearish
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bearish
MACD momentumbearish
RSI (14)bearish
Bollinger positionbearish
Market structurebearish

Key levels

0.1726+1.64%
0.1811+6.67%
0.2139+26.00%

Price0.1698

0.1695-0.18%
0.1405-17.24%

84.5%annualised · high

Realised volatility is running well above what is normal for Stellar. Ranges are wide, stops need more room, and position sizes should be smaller than usual to keep risk constant.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Closed above 0.1726
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
3d ago
Closed above 0.1726
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
8d ago
Dropped 5.77% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (4.18%).
9d ago
Closed above 0.1811
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
10d ago
Medium-term trend turned bearish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed below the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
11d ago
Closed above 0.1811
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
22d ago
Closed above 0.1811
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 30
Closed above 0.1726
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 29
Closed above 0.2139
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 16
Jumped 13.92% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (9.08%).
Jun 15
Dropped 11.60% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (8.33%).
Jun 2
Jumped 14.03% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (8.60%).
May 31
Dropped 10.29% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (7.17%).
May 30
Jumped 23.08% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.2× its typical daily range (7.10%).
May 29
Closed above 0.2139
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 29
Jumped 28.21% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 4.0× its typical daily range (7.04%).
May 28
Closed above 0.1726
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 28
Closed above 0.1811
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 28
Jumped 9.58% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (5.75%).
May 27
Closed below 0.1695
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 11

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

0.1777 / 0.1823

bearish

The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.

38.2

bearish

At 38 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

-0.00500

bearish

MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.

0.32× average

neutral

Activity is 68% below average. Thin participation makes the current move easier to reverse and less reliable as a signal.

0.0060 (3.52%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.0060 per bar, or 3.52% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 0.1726 on above-average volume
If it fires: 0.1811 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 0.1695 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 0.1726 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 0.1811. This would be counter-trend, so it needs stronger confirmation than usual — a single spike through the level is not enough. Given the market is moving roughly 0.0060 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 0.1695 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 0.1405, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 0.1726 would void this idea

If 0.1695 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 0.1405. This aligns with the prevailing trend, which makes it the higher-probability of the two paths here. With volatility elevated, a break can travel a long way quickly — the first move is often the largest.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Volatility is high at roughly 85% annualised, so the usual position size carries more risk than usual right now.
Crypto trades 24/7, so a position can move substantially while you are asleep with no session close to protect you.
Liquidity thins dramatically during weekends and holidays, which exaggerates both directions.
Regulatory headlines remain the single largest source of unhedgeable overnight risk.

Key events to watch

Spot ETF flow data, published daily
Exchange reserve balances and large on-chain transfers
Regulatory announcements and enforcement actions in major jurisdictions

What actually drives Stellar: payment-corridor partnerships, network usage, crypto beta.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 09:12 PM · Live market data from CoinGecko.