Monero
Monero, a privacy-focused cryptocurrency with mandatory transaction shielding, priced against the US dollar.
Price · last 3 months
SimulatedMarket trend
Bearish
Monero is moderately bearish on this timeframe.
Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.
Signals behind this
- Price vs long-term averagebearish
- EMA 20 vs EMA 50bearish
- MACD momentumbullish
- RSI (14)neutral
- Bollinger positionneutral
- Market structurebearish
Key levels
- 90.21+1.27%
- 93.76+5.25%
- 97.76+9.75%
- 87.57-1.69%
- 83.31-6.47%
17.1%annualised · low
Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.
How this developed
Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.
Dropped 2.58% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (2.03%).
8d ago
Dropped 2.81% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (1.85%).
9d ago
Closed below 87.57
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
9d ago
Closed above 90.21
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
15d ago
Jumped 2.67% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (1.85%).
Jul 4
Closed above 93.76
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 4
Jumped 2.58% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (2.11%).
Jun 26
Closed above 97.76
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 26
Summary
Technical indicators
Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.
88.00 / 90.36
The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.
49.5
At 50 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.
-1.0736
MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.
0.96× average
Volume is close to its period average — participation is normal and is neither confirming nor contradicting the price move.
1.85 (2.09%)
The market has been moving about 1.85 per bar, or 2.09% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.
Two ways this could go
Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.
Potential bullish scenario
- Trigger
- A daily close above 90.21 on above-average volume
- If it fires
- 93.76 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
- Invalidation
- A move back below 87.57 would void this idea
If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 90.21 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 93.76. This would be counter-trend, so it needs stronger confirmation than usual — a single spike through the level is not enough. Given the market is moving roughly 1.85 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.
Potential bearish scenario
- Trigger
- Losing 87.57 and failing to reclaim it
- If it fires
- 83.31, the next level where buyers previously defended
- Invalidation
- Reclaiming 90.21 would void this idea
If 87.57 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 83.31. This aligns with the prevailing trend, which makes it the higher-probability of the two paths here. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.
Trading risks
- This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
- Crypto trades 24/7, so a position can move substantially while you are asleep with no session close to protect you.
- Liquidity thins dramatically during weekends and holidays, which exaggerates both directions.
- Regulatory headlines remain the single largest source of unhedgeable overnight risk.
Key events to watch
- Spot ETF flow data, published daily
- Exchange reserve balances and large on-chain transfers
- Regulatory announcements and enforcement actions in major jurisdictions
What actually drives Monero: exchange delistings, privacy-coin regulatory scrutiny, darknet-market demand.
This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
Generated Aug 4, 09:14 PM · No live source is configured for this market, so prices are simulated and do not represent real quotes.