Value
US Dollar Index
The dollar measured against a basket of major currencies.
Trust model
Institution
The dollar's value rests on trust in US institutions — its central bank, its courts, and its financial markets — more than on any physical backing. Because it's the default currency for global trade and reserves, that institutional trust extends well beyond US borders.
What supports value
Reserve currency status
The dollar is the primary currency for global trade invoicing, commodity pricing, and central bank reserves, which creates continuous structural demand for it.
Deep, liquid financial markets
US Treasury and money markets are the deepest and most liquid in the world, making the dollar easy to hold and move at scale.
Federal Reserve credibility
Decades of the Fed managing inflation and acting as a lender of last resort underpin confidence in dollar-denominated assets.
Legal and institutional stability
US courts, property rights, and rule of law give holders of dollar assets a predictable legal environment.
What could change the thesis
Fiscal and debt trajectory
Rising federal debt and deficits raise long-run questions about debt sustainability and future currency debasement.
De-dollarisation efforts
Some countries are actively working to reduce reliance on the dollar for trade settlement and reserves, though this has been slow-moving so far.
Monetary policy shifts
Fed rate decisions and balance-sheet policy directly change the relative attractiveness of holding dollars versus other currencies.
Political and institutional risk
Debt-ceiling standoffs or threats to Fed independence can raise questions about the predictability of US policy.
Key drivers to watch
Why is US Dollar Index moving?
01 — What changed (evidence)
- PriceUS Dollar Index is -0.40% on the 3M timeframe.
- IndicatorPrice vs long-term average reads neutral (weight 24%).
- IndicatorEMA 20 vs EMA 50 reads neutral (weight 22%).
- IndicatorMACD momentum reads bearish (weight 18%).
- IndicatorRSI (14) reads bearish (weight 14%).
- IndicatorBollinger position reads bearish (weight 10%).
- IndicatorMarket structure reads bullish (weight 12%).
- IndicatorVolatility regime is low (Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.).
- NewsFed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two
- NewsDollar slips as eurozone PMIs beat expectations
- NewsUS core CPI cools to slowest annual pace in three years
02 — Interpretation
US Dollar Index is trading at 102.949, -0.40% over the last 24 hours. Across the last 3 months, the market has no clear directional bias, with 2 of 6 signals pointing the same way — a confidence reading of 33 out of 100. The level that matters on the downside is 102.597; on the upside it is 103.186. Between those two, the market is doing nothing informative and there is no edge in forcing a position. Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm. What would change this read: a decisive close outside that range on convincing volume, or a scheduled event that reprices the underlying story — Fed policy and global growth spreads are what actually drive US Dollar Index, and no amount of chart reading substitutes for knowing what is on the calendar.
03 — What the evidence currently suggests
US Dollar Index is range-bound with no decisive edge either way
04 — What could invalidate this view
- A move back below 102.597 would void this idea
- Reclaiming 103.186 would void this idea
Generated Oct 27, 02:19 AM. Educational, not financial advice.
Market conditions
US Dollar Index
The dollar measured against a basket of major currencies.
Price · last 3 months
SimulatedMarket trend
Neutral
US Dollar Index is range-bound with no decisive edge either way.
Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.
Signals behind this
- Price vs long-term averageneutral
- EMA 20 vs EMA 50neutral
- MACD momentumbearish
- RSI (14)bearish
- Bollinger positionbearish
- Market structurebullish
Key levels
- 103.186+0.23%
- 103.474+0.51%
- 103.672+0.70%
- 102.597-0.34%
- 101.838-1.08%
- 101.249-1.65%
4.6%annualised · low
Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.
How this developed
Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.
Fed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two
NewsThe Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and the updated dot plot now shows two cuts this year instead of three. The statement kept the language on inflation being 'somewhat elevated' and the Chair pushed back on questions about an earlier start to easing.
2h ago
Dollar slips as eurozone PMIs beat expectations
NewsComposite PMI for the bloc came in above consensus, with the services component driving the beat and manufacturing stabilising just under the expansion line. The euro rallied through the session high on the release.
6h ago
US core CPI cools to slowest annual pace in three years
NewsCore inflation excluding food and energy rose less than forecast on the month, with shelter finally decelerating and core services ex-housing flat. Headline was in line.
1d ago
Treasury yields climb after soft long-bond auction
NewsA 30-year auction tailed against the when-issued level with weak indirect participation, pushing yields higher across the curve into the close.
2d ago
Closed above 103.186
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
2d ago
Closed above 103.474
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
12d ago
Closed above 103.186
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
13d ago
Closed below 102.597
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
15d ago
Closed above 103.474
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
24d ago
Closed above 103.474
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
28d ago
Closed above 103.672
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
28d ago
Closed above 103.186
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
29d ago
Medium-term trend turned bullish
Trend changeThe 20-period average crossed above the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
Sep 27
Medium-term trend turned bearish
Trend changeThe 20-period average crossed below the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
Sep 23
Closed below 102.597
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Sep 15
Closed below 102.597
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Sep 11
Closed below 101.838
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 30
Closed below 101.838
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 24
Closed below 101.838
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 19
Closed below 101.838
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Aug 15
Showing the 20 most recent of 25 events in this window.
Summary
Technical indicators
Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.
103.076 / 102.927
The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.
45.4
At 45 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.
0.00815
MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.
Not published
The data source for US Dollar Index publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.
0.568 (0.55%)
The market has been moving about 0.568 per bar, or 0.55% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.
Two ways this could go
Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.
Potential bullish scenario
- Trigger
- A daily close above 103.186 on above-average volume
- If it fires
- 103.474 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
- Invalidation
- A move back below 102.597 would void this idea
If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 103.186 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 103.474. In a range-bound market a clean break is what resolves the indecision, so the volume behind it matters more than the break itself. Given the market is moving roughly 0.568 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.
Potential bearish scenario
- Trigger
- Losing 102.597 and failing to reclaim it
- If it fires
- 101.838, the next level where buyers previously defended
- Invalidation
- Reclaiming 103.186 would void this idea
If 102.597 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 101.838. With no trend in place, a failure at support is as likely to resolve the range as a break higher. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.
Trading risks
- This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
- Indicators disagree with each other on this timeframe, which historically means choppy conditions and a higher rate of false signals.
- Index moves are increasingly driven by a handful of megacap names, so concentration risk is higher than the diversification implies.
- Overnight gaps between the cash close and the next open can jump straight through a stop.
Key events to watch
- Megacap earnings, which drive a disproportionate share of index moves
- Federal Reserve policy decisions and the projection materials
- Monthly inflation and labour market data
What actually drives US Dollar Index: Fed policy, global growth spreads, haven flows.
Latest market news
Fed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two
30-second summary
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and the updated dot plot now shows two cuts this year instead of three. The statement kept the language on inflation being 'somewhat elevated' and the Chair pushed back on questions about an earlier start to easing.
Dollar slips as eurozone PMIs beat expectations
30-second summary
Composite PMI for the bloc came in above consensus, with the services component driving the beat and manufacturing stabilising just under the expansion line. The euro rallied through the session high on the release.
US core CPI cools to slowest annual pace in three years
30-second summary
Core inflation excluding food and energy rose less than forecast on the month, with shelter finally decelerating and core services ex-housing flat. Headline was in line.
Treasury yields climb after soft long-bond auction
30-second summary
A 30-year auction tailed against the when-issued level with weak indirect participation, pushing yields higher across the curve into the close.
This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
Generated Oct 27, 02:19 AM · No live source is configured for this market, so prices are simulated and do not represent real quotes.